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Topic: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash (Read 1755 times) |
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Baw_Flinger
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Ex 2.3 owner..... Snif
Posts: 438
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Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« on: Sep 15th, 2006, 12:20pm » |
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Taken from this website-
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...nsumers14.html
Please god............
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WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.
"All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said Philip Verleger, a noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in warning that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be poised for a dramatic plunge.
Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from their July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they rose slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel inventories a bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected to continue, and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.
Here's why:
For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the world's oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand, particularly from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight that market players feared that any disruption to oil production could create shortages.
Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that might spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that hurricanes might topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the future price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and companies that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total trading. Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're seeking profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in recent years, according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the future bid up the price of oil.
That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions against supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories of oil are approaching 1990 levels.
But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil prices are ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The hurricane season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. peak summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.
With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding. With oil inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected to cut production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly risk getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal evidence of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.
All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil.
"If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter like we had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil," said Gary Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy hedge fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."
As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59, according to the AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have fallen to $2.856 currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent, according to AAA.
Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get worse and run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger said, it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a barrel, at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as $1.15 per gallon.
Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that a race to the bottom could break out.
"The market may test levels here that are too low to be sustained," said Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consultancy in Boston.
On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices fall precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them. But that would take time.
"That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold winter here [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you don't know where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if things start falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It has nothing to do with production."
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Octavian_P
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Posts: 1126
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #1 on: Sep 15th, 2006, 12:56pm » |
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I really hope for that major price decrese.....i'll sleep int-o the scorpio after, i'll take dinner in it....you got the ideea.....
...."just fill it up please.....yes yes the 100 octane one" 
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2.0 16V Ultima|2.3 16V Ghia|2.9 24V Cosworth Ghia
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derekne
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PULL OVER
Posts: 282
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #2 on: Sep 15th, 2006, 2:22pm » |
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Wow that was one hell of an email  .
That even beats mine when im really having fun with the scorp.
Well Its good news here as the price has already been dropping for 2 weeks.
Azda started it all ofF. With full prices as 90.3. Then with in days every one else copied. So Azda dropped again to 89.00. 6 days later every one else follows.
So yesterday Azda dropped again to 88.00
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derekne
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cossieguy
Full Member
1996 Cosworth Ultima saloon
Posts: 550
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #3 on: Sep 15th, 2006, 4:07pm » |
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87.9 in Norwich at the moment but seems to be dropping a penny a day Me and the cossie are going to have fun fun fun!
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TiberiuS
Senior Member
Ex. 1996 2.3 Ultima - RIP P789 KHJ
Posts: 2257
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #4 on: Sep 15th, 2006, 7:20pm » |
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87.9 in the local Shell, 90.9 for Optimax (sorry, V Max  )
Starting to wish I hadn't sold the project XJ12 now...
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Bruce - '07 Jaguar XKR coupe, '95 Jaguar XJ Sport 4.0, '82 Ford Capri 2.0 Ghia, '15 Honda Civic (sloooooww..)
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cossie_al
Full Member
Ex 24v
Posts: 902
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #5 on: Sep 15th, 2006, 8:53pm » |
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well At this rate there will be questions about how to have the 24v default to sport mode instead of economy 
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Baw_Flinger
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Ex 2.3 owner..... Snif
Posts: 438
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #6 on: Sep 15th, 2006, 11:48pm » |
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69p-74p a ltr here we come!!! Heavy foot syndrome will reach new epedemic proportions in the UK
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mr._floppy
Junior Member
Posts: 100
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #7 on: Sep 16th, 2006, 12:16am » |
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Don't get too excited, if the USA is expecting a reduction from a $3 + gallon to a $1.15 gallon ( very unlikely ) then we should only start celebrating when us mugs get a similar reduction.
45p a litre perhaps ? 
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Geoff_W
Senior Member
98 Ulti2.5tdi Auto
Posts: 1340
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #8 on: Sep 16th, 2006, 12:46pm » |
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The actual fuel cost element is something like 25% the rest is excise duty with vat on top, Gordon wont let it happen... Turkeys and Christmas springs to mind. If it looks like happening he will increase excise duty
Budget announcement November 2006 - Perm any one from 5
We intend to levy this increase so that we can prudently.....save the environment/ reduce vehicle use/ save or improve the NHS/ get us out of the smelly stuff
Not going to happen is it? 
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The winding road goes on and on... or at least it does in Northumberland
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Jonnycab
Senior Member
Former owner of 2.3 Ultima Facelift saloon
Posts: 3900
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #9 on: Sep 16th, 2006, 8:12pm » |
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In 2000 we had fuel blockades because petrol hit 80p a litre. The transport industry said it couldn't survive without increasing transport costs. These rising costs would eventually hit the consumer. I for one have noticed the price of my fortnightly shop at Tesco increase by at least 40% since 2000.
If the fuel prices do plummet, will the transport industry follow suit, & supermarkets etc pass on the saving to the consumer....hhmmm....we will see. I'm not feeling very optimistic about it though 
Can't see why we still havn't got a decent alternative to petrol though.
In Cuba, where they are practically self sufficient, 90% of all petrol vehicles run on ethanol which is produced from the locally grown sugar cane. 
It costs pennies & is not harmful to the environment. Apparently, all the motorways have lush green grass growing right up to the edge of the tarmac. 
Now that would b****r up the Saudi's (& probably the whole worlds ecomony), but hey, things have got to change one day
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TiberiuS
Senior Member
Ex. 1996 2.3 Ultima - RIP P789 KHJ
Posts: 2257
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #10 on: Sep 16th, 2006, 8:46pm » |
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I agree with all what's been said.
In the last 2 years, fuel has risen from around 82p litre and peaked at £1.10, I wonder if this is really all genuine or a clever way of quelling protests. The price of fuel is nothing but extortion, 5 years ago
there would've been an outcry (indeed there was...) if petrol hit 90p a Litre. Now people are happy to pay that amount, almost grateful that the price has fallen from the pound, some trickery going on here, me thinks.
I'll still be happy to see 80p though, I think we'll be lucky to get to that, let alone below before another 'green' tax is slapped on it...
Regards, Bruce.
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Bruce - '07 Jaguar XKR coupe, '95 Jaguar XJ Sport 4.0, '82 Ford Capri 2.0 Ghia, '15 Honda Civic (sloooooww..)
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Geoff_W
Senior Member
98 Ulti2.5tdi Auto
Posts: 1340
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #11 on: Sep 17th, 2006, 12:53am » |
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Bruce,
It happened nice and gradually,.........boiled frog...slowly but surely, 
Getting on for 40% of Swedish cars now run on ethanol from plant origins, cleaner and a better burn = more power or economy
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The winding road goes on and on... or at least it does in Northumberland
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mazzy_j
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Posts: 664
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #12 on: Sep 18th, 2006, 5:51pm » |
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The Esso in Hornchurch (Essex) is at 86.9p
Me thinks the diesel will be sitting in the drive a lot more now the cossie is on more level terms with my wallet
Matt
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Baw_Flinger
Full Member
Ex 2.3 owner..... Snif
Posts: 438
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #13 on: Sep 19th, 2006, 9:12pm » |
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Morrisons round the corner from me have always been the cheapest in my area. Today we hit 86.7p!!! Been dropping every day by as much as 2p
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howiedintheplace
Senior Member
Based near Evesham
Posts: 1194
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #14 on: Sep 19th, 2006, 9:20pm » |
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In Evesham we hit 85.9 today
Why ain't LPG going down then, after all it's a by product of making petrol yet still the price has not dropped. Some penny pincing going on I reckon.
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Dave
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Butterfingers
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2.3, 16V auto R Reg Ultima
Posts: 202
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #15 on: Oct 2nd, 2006, 12:52pm » |
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Its hit 84.9p in Epping at the halfmoon station, opposite Gates of Epping!
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Danny_R
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97 Ford Crown Vic 4.6L V8 ,88 Mercury GM 5.0L V8
Posts: 381
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #16 on: Oct 4th, 2006, 12:57am » |
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It's 2 dollars and 13 cents a gallon at my local station. Was nearly 3 dollars a gallon a month ago! Hey if it's gets any better i might be able to drop the 7.2 liter V8 into my car
Danny_R
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Jonnycab
Senior Member
Former owner of 2.3 Ultima Facelift saloon
Posts: 3900
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #17 on: Oct 4th, 2006, 1:31am » |
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2 dollars 13 cents.....that's like £1.50 a gallon.....a third of the price we pay over here 
It's no wonder the US is the biggest polluter on the planet
I wonder what would happen if petrol...sorry...gas in the States was 7 dollars a gallon (like it is in Britain)?
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hepburn
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I'm a YaBB newbie!
Posts: 109
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #18 on: Oct 4th, 2006, 5:06am » |
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on Oct 4th, 2006, 1:31am, jonnycab wrote:| 2 dollars 13 cents.....that's like £1.50 a gallon.....a third of the price we pay over here |
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When I first lived out there it was 99 cents a gallon. By the time I came back it was $2.35. The one major difference in US prices is they can rise and fall by reasonable amounts on a weekly, if not daily, basis - something we're starting to see here now too.
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Baw_Flinger
Full Member
Ex 2.3 owner..... Snif
Posts: 438
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Re: Wooo Hooo!!- possible fuel price crash
« Reply #19 on: Oct 4th, 2006, 8:33am » |
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Yeh, only as long as the surplus stock lasts and we dont kick off with Iran any time soon I have noticed that the cost of crude to the same level when we were getting 74p, have we seen this drop? Have we b****ry, thanks Mr taxman....
BTW, 84.5p today at Morries
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